Dealing with weather

Our journey between Maine and Florida will involve a mix of narrow, protected waterways (classic ICW),  and more open bays, sounds, even open ocean.  For these open waters we need to look at weather conditions, both forecasts and real-time reports.

Right now we have a good example of how weather can and will impact our travel schedule.  So far on the trip we've been blessed with great weather.  Yes, some days had more wind than we wanted and sometimes wind directions weren't favorable, but in general we've had lots of sun and warm temps, very few cloudy days, very little rain, almost zero thunderstorms.

This fortunate weather allowed us freedom to pretty much go where we wanted, when we wanted.  Instead of bee lining southwards, we visited islands we had never been to (Seguin, Cuttyhunk, Block), and visited with friends and relatives in Portland, Guilford, and here in Northport.

Now things are changing.  Yesterday we had a fairly long (45 miles) run from Guilford CT across Long Island Sound to Northport NY in fairly calm waters, and it was warm and sunny when we arrived. Today was gray and drippy but that's OK as our plans were to stay and visit with old friend Kevin, whom we hadn't seen in 30+ years.   And that was great.

Tomorrow we resume travel, and I would like to get through NYC to land in New Jersey at Sandy Hook, but the weather report advises no.  Tomorrow morning is predicted to have south winds of 10-15 knots which will be OK as we proceed westwards towards NYC, hugging the north shore of Long Island (so no big fetch).  But the afternoon forecast is for S winds 15-20 knots, with gusts to 25 and small craft warnings, and this is what we would hit as we turn south and pass down the East River, across New York Harbor, and through the Verrazano Straights, with that strong south wind opposing the ebbing tide current, which would build a steep chop.  So the afternoon run could be rather uncomfortable.

So we'll probably layover in Manhasset Bay at mid-day tomorrow, just above the Throgs Neck Bridge, and tie to one of their free moorings overnight.  Tuesday's prediction calls for North winds of 10 knots, and we will have those at our backs as we transit NYC, which should make an easy run to Sandy Hook.  We'll make that trip in the afternoon to catch favorable tides in the East River and under the Verrazano bridge.

Sandy Hook is where cruisers like us wait for a good weather window to do the 'outside' portion of New Jersey, which is a 30, 50, or 80 mile run (depending on which inlet you turn inland at) down the Jersey coast in the open Atlantic.  Right now the predictions indicate that we may have to hang at Sandy Hook for several days since moderate to strong NE winds are predicted Wednesday through Friday.  It's the E in NE that I dislike as any eastern component to the wind means large waves on the Jersey Shore.  I'd much prefer W winds.  Bottom line is that we might get stuck at Sandy Hook for 3 or more days.

These scenarios always have much doubt in them, as you expect with weather predictions, plus some temptations.  For example, what if we reach Manhasset tomorrow by noon and all seems OK for us to proceed through NYC and reach Sandy Hook by tomorrow night?  Then Tuesday's N winds are OK to move down the Jersey shore to the first inlet at Manasquan.  Then we are inside the protected NJ ICW and thus pretty much immune from the wind conditions of the rest of the week, and southwards we boogie.  It's tempting but maybe unwise.  What to do, what to do....